Lions Tour: Scheduling Expectations

With any ten test Lions tour, Warren Gatland and his coaching staff will need to be mindful of player fatigue and its implications for the tests when selecting his sides for the earlier matches against the New Zealand Barbarians, the five Kiwi Super Rugby franchises and the Maori All Blacks. Saying that, Gatland will want to give his leading squad players time to play against high quality opposition in readiness for the All Black onslaught, a scenario open to the Lions coaching staff with Steve Hansen allowing his All Black players to play for their domestic teams during the warm up games. There is no question that this tour is going to be among the most punishing of modern times, with the Australian tour of four years ago having been relatively comfortable against a fairly week Wallaby team.

3 June – New Zealand Barbarians – Whangarei

The opening game for the Lions and almost certainly the easiest one they will face. With the game coming only weeks after major domestic cup finals in the Northern Hemisphere, it would be a surprise to see the likes of Jonathan Davies, Peter O’Mahony, CJ Stander, Conor Murray and Courtney Lawes featuring, but Gatland will be looking to give a run-out to more inexperienced members of the team to allow them to acclimatise to the Kiwi style of rugby, and perhaps to players who haven’t played for an extended period due to injury. I would therefore expect to see Anthony Watson, Ben Te’o and Iain Henderson featuring alongside the experience of Rory Best, Taulupe Faletau and Sam Warburton.

7 June – Blues – Auckland

A real test for Gatland’s men in their second match. The Blues have been average this season in the Australasian Group of Super Rugby having recorded 6 wins from 11 so far, but that does include the demolition of the Rebels in the opening week and wins against the Bulls, the Brumbies and the Force. The Lions will need to be particularly mindful of the Ioane brothers who have been regular try scorers this year and the All Blacks, Steve Luatua, Patrick Tuipulotu and Sonny Bill Williams. Gatland will have the luxury of having had his full squad together for a more reasonable period for this game and will therefore probably name a strong side of test hopefuls including Murray, Jonny Sexton, Maro Itoje, George North and Stuart Hogg.

10 June – Crusaders – Christchurch

A test match all but officially considering the sheer quality available to the Crusaders and their dominant form that has seen them win every game of the season so far including hugely impressive wins against the Highlanders, the Waratahs, the Sunwolves and the Bulls. Numbered among their ranks are World Cup winners Kieran Read, Owen Franks, Wyatt Crockett, Sam Whitelock, Joe Moody, Luke Romano and Israel Dagg and they have several other All Blacks in addition to those. This match will be a real indicator of the Lions chances and reasonable expectations on this tour. If Scott Robertson names a full-strength side (probably minus the injured Read) and the Lions struggle, then it is indicative of the Lions likely struggles against the full All Black team a month ahead, but if the Lions play effectively as a team and isolate the inexperienced members of Robertson’s team then it could be a truly terrific contest. Gatland would be a fool to name anything but his strongest team in Christchurch: Owen Farrell, Elliot Daly, Stander, North, Itoje, the lot.

13 June – Highlanders – Dunedin

By this point in the tour Gatland will be looking at squad rotation and will likely have picked up injuries. This is unfortunate because in the Dunedin-based Highlanders, the Lions face one of the strongest New Zealand teams of the last five years and one packed with current All Blacks. Gatland’s men will therefore have to contend with the likes of Aaron Smith, Liam Squire, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith. The South Islanders also have a large and aggressive pack that will need to be neutralised before the ball can be played out wide. Expect Ross Moriarty, Taulupe Faletau, Alun Wyn Jones and Robbie Henshaw.

17 June – Maori All Blacks – Rotorua

An unknown quantity as an invitational side, but still providing a real test, the Maori All Blacks last played in November in tests versus Harlequins, Munster and the USA. Gatland will probably use this match as an opportunity to rest some of his bigger names and give those on the edge of test selection the opportunity to press their claims. With the possibility of fringe All Blacks such as Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Rieko Ioane and Damian McKenzie getting the call, it will be interesting how Gatland tries to nullify their hard-running threat and may try to match up like-for-like by selecting Anthony Watson, Rhys Webb and Jamie George.

20 June – Chiefs – Hamilton

It doesn’t get any easier for the Lions as they journey across the North Island to Hamilton to take on the Chiefs. The Waikato franchise won two Super Rugby Championships on the bounce in 2012-13 and are still a real threat, currently sitting third in the New Zealand conference and sixth overall. Amongst the stars that Dave Rennie may be able to select include current All Blacks Sam Cane, Liam Messam Brodie Retallick, Kerr-Barlow and Aaron Cruden and several other players with experience of wearing the shirt. Leinster-bound James Lowe has been a try-scoring machine this season and Tim Nanai-Williams is electric with ball in hand. With the first test against the All Blacks only four days away, Gatland probably won’t field a full-strength team, but will want a strong performance and may well select Dan Biggar, Ben Te’o and Lawes to do the job.

24 June – New Zealand – Auckland

The first test and a crucial one in dictating a successful tour. Of the last three Lions tours, the team that has won the first test has gone on to win the series and the Lions can’t afford to give the All Blacks an inch. In the absence of injuries, it can be imagined that the First Test team will comprise Murray, Farrell, North, Warburton and Itoje with the other spots filled on performances earlier in the tour. Lining up against them will be the likes of Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett, Brodie Retallick and Aaron Smith and it will be the fine margins that dictate the outcome. But make no mistake, if the Lions find themselves on the backfoot early, chances are this will be less a battle and more a siege.

27 June – Hurricanes – Wellington

The current Super Rugby Champions and fifth in this year’s competition so far, the Hurricanes are unlikely to have all if any of their All Blacks playing due to the scheduling of this match between test matches. In their absence, Gatland will probably give his charges a well-deserved rest, handing playing spots to non-test players such as Ken Owens, Kyle Sinckler, Greig Laidlaw, Te’o and Henderson. Even without their All Blacks, the Hurricanes will still be gunning for success on home turf with Jordie Barrett, Reggie Goodes, Chris Eves and Brad Shields likely to get game time.

The final two tests

There is no question that the Lions are going to throw the kitchen sink at the All Blacks but will it be enough? There will likely be a high attrition rate during the test considering the size of the All Black team and therefore it is possible that players who no one saw starting tests at the beginning of the tour may get their opportunity. Dan Biggar, Tommy Seymour and Joe Marler may fall into this bracket. It is also possible that players not currently selected to tour may make the Test team following earlier injuries, an eventuality that occurred four years ago when Alex Corbisiero replaced Cian Healy and started the first and third tests.

Summer Tours in a Lions season: Where the home nations are touring and which players can take advantage

The Lions year is always an unusual one in the rugby calendar, as each of Britain and Ireland’s international teams take second-string squads abroad halfway through a World Cup cycle. For many, it is an opportunity to put their name in contention for continued international honours and for some, it may be their only chance of getting international recognition. Pleasingly though, it also points to the squad depth of our international squads in the northern hemisphere and shows we can still compete with international rivals, even when the cream of our players are in the Antipodes, or South Africa. This summer, Ireland are playing Japan, England face Argentina, whilst Wales and Scotland travel to the South Pacific and Oceania. It is to be hoped that it will be a summer of shocks and revelations, with lesser-known players stepping up in foreign environments and the Tier Two teams giving the established giants a run for their money.

 

Scotland: Tour Schedule

V Italy (10 June)

V Australia (17 June)

V Fiji (24 June)

In his first tour as Scotland coach, Gregor Townsend has selected three new caps and is missing Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour and Grieg Laidlaw to the Lions. Those three new caps are centre Nick Grigg, hooker George Turner and tight-head prop D’Arcy Rae. He will also have the benefit of the return of Willem Nel and Peter Horne from injury after they both missed the Six Nations and has relative experience across the board due to the lack of Lions absentees. What should Scotland set out to achieve on this tour? Two wins out of three as a minimum, playing Australia in Sydney may well be a stretch too far, but wins against Italy in Singapore and Fiji in Suva are a must in order to build on a very encouraging Six Nations campaign. Of those selected, the Gray brothers need to ensure they recapture their form of a couple of seasons ago to keep themselves in contention should any injuries befall the Lions squad and Finn Russell will be looking to prove Warren Gatland wrong. Of those who could really make a name for themselves, Ali Price should have free-reign at scrum-half with Laidlaw not available whilst Ben Toolis and Zander Fagerson may well catch the eye.

 

Wales: Tour Schedule

V Tonga (16 June)

V Samoa (24 June)

Only a two-game tour for Wales this summer (not including a warm-up game against RCF 1404 in Colwyn Bay), but it will provide a true touring experience for the Welsh players  whom Robin McBryde is expected to name tomorrow. Gethin Jenkins has already been ruled out due to a knee injury, but it would be a surprise not to see established names such as Scott Williams, Luke Charteris and Samson Lee in the squad considering the number of players selected for the Lions tour. In particular, McBryde will need to reconstitute a back-row that is missing four major stars to Gatland’s team and at full-back, with both Liam Williams and Leigh Halfpenny unavailable. This could be the tour for Thomas Young, Jake Ball, Tomas Francis and Sam Davies to really make their mark in the Wales jersey and give Gatland, Howley and co. something to think about before the visit of Australia, Georgia, New Zealand and South Africa in the autumn. Following his selection in the Pro12 team of the year, James Davies is also likely to make the squad as are Dan Baker and Rory Thornton. For Wales, anything other than two victories will be considered a backwards step on this tour, although they do have form in this department, having lost one of their two test matches to Japan this time four years ago.

 

England: Tour Schedule

V Barbarians (28 May)

V Argentina (10 June)

V Argentina (17 June)

Probably the most difficult tour schedule of all the home nations, even though the Barbarians game will be more a festival of rugby than a truly competitive test-match. Eddie Jones was very quick following the Lions squad announcement to name his selections for the tour and includes fifteen uncapped players in a thirty-one man touring party. The most eye-catching of the newcomers include London Irish winger Joe Cokanasiga, Bath flanker Sam Underhill, Sale winger Denny Solomona and Harry Mallinder of Northampton. There are also some surprising omissions in the form of Christian Wade and Semesa Rokodoguni, but the squad still contains established talent in the form of Dylan Hartley, Joe Launchbury, Chris Robshaw and Mike Brown even with Owen Farrell, Jonathan Joseph, Billy Vunipola and Maro Itoje missing, amongst others.  The match against the Barbarians will be an opportunity for the uncapped players to get accustomed to the England jersey before the flight to South America but expect players such as Danny Care, Henry Slade and Tom Wood to get the nod over Jack Maunder, Sam James and Nick Isiekwe during the tests themselves.

 

Ireland: Tour Schedule

V USA (10 June)

V Japan (17 June)

V Japan (24 June)

A competitive tour schedule awaits Ireland as they return to the US to face the Eagles for a single test before they journey to Honshu to play two successive tests against Japan. With the second largest contingent in the Lions squad, the Irish management will need to welcome several new faces to the touring party alongside established stars such as Simon Zebo, Garry Ringrose, Paddy Jackson and Devin Toner. This tour will be particularly exciting for the new generation of Irish backrowers competing for the position, especially Dan Leavy and Jack Conan who were both named in this year’s Pro12 Team of the Season. Joey Carbery will also get the opportunity to replicate his sterling domestic form in a green jersey with Jonny Sexton’s absence, whilst for others such as Zebo, it will allow them to work on their game following the disappointment of being overlooked for the Lions. The opening game will likely see an established team taking the pitch with Schmidt exercising increased flexibility as the tour goes on. Expect to see three wins, or questions will be asked.

Lions Squad Announcement: Selection, National balance and merit

Shocks! Joy! Jubilation! As Warren Gatland and his coaching staff announced this year’s Lions team, the immediate future of many of the northern hemisphere’s rugby elite was confirmed, and for many, it was a dream dashed. With a larger than expected squad of forty-one, many have questioned the nationality balance across the board, with only two Scots featuring alongside twelve Welshman, who as a team underperformed at the Six Nations. Personally, although I am surprised neither of the Gray brothers made the squad, I do not think two Scots is fundamentally wrong and despite Austin Healey’s belief in the power of rugby politics, it does seem that Gatland and his coaches have chosen largely on merit.

I wrote two blogs either side of the Six Nations concerning the composition of Gatland’s squad and its worth addressing the consistencies and the anomalies. At full back, Gatland has opted for Leigh Halfpenny, Stuart Hogg and Liam Williams. This position was always going to be tightly fought by the above three and Rob Kearney and Mike Brown. Gatland has never been a fan of Brown with his lack of a scything counter-attacking ability, whereas Kearney sustained an injury during the tournament and has failed to hit the heights of previous years. The Irishman was on my squad list, but I can easily see why he has been left out. On the wing there are a glut of Englishmen, more than expected. In Jack Nowell, Anthony Watson and Elliot Daly, Gatland has an axis of players who know how to play together and complement each other with their skill sets. For Nowell to make the squad ahead of Simon Zebo talks to the latter’s poor Six Nations and Nowell’s work rate, if not his scoring record. Tommy Seymour and George North were always close to selection and if I had anticipated that Gatland would select five wingers Seymour would have made my team, but North is the leading candidate for the test squad with his all-round game and close relationship with Gatland putting him in pole position.

The Centre position did throw up a couple of surprises. I believed that Jonathan Joseph, Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne were going to be selected, even though it did appear that Joseph had lost his spot according to the supposed omniscience of social media. I am particularly excited though  by Payne’s inclusion. Not only is he a native Kiwi and knows the terrain, but has experience of beating the All Blacks and has that wonderful Antipodean quality of having more time on the ball than others twice as quick. His is a fitting inclusion. The other two are shock choices. Ben Te’o is an effective player and proved his worth as an impact sub during the Six Nations, but he is a relative novice on the international rugby stage and did not appear to be in Gatland’s thinking. The other surprise selection is Jonathan Davies. Gatland is a big fan of the Scarlets’ centre and despite his match-altering error in the loss to England in February, he offers experience in attack and defence, but the cutting edge appears to have been blunted in the last couple of years. It would be a surprise if he made the test team.

At fly-half, Owen Farrell, Jonny Sexton and Dan Biggar were unsurprisingly selected. This appeared a likelihood from last year’s autumn internationals and Biggar confirmed his big-match credentials against England when he was desperately unfortunate to be on the losing team. For Finn Russell and George Ford, they were unable to differentiate themselves from their more heralded colleagues and Russell’s struggles against England at Twickenham condemned him to touring Oceania rather than the land of the long white cloud.

At scrum-half, there wasn’t much surprise in the selection of Connor Murray and Rhys Webb, although Ben Youngs snuck in as the final choice. Danny Care would always have been classed as a bolter were he to make the team ahead of his England colleague, but with former and current England coaches in Steve Borthwick, Graham Rowntree and Andy Farrell part of the touring party, it is to be hoped that they recognise the benefits of selecting one over the other.

For the forward pack, Gatland has chosen to overlook Jamie Heaslip, who suffered an injury in the Six Nations and has failed to replicate his form earlier in his career in favour of Taulupe Faletau and Billy Vunipola. Although the latter missed much of the Six Nations, at his best he is one of the world’s best back-row forwards and is devastating when running into contact and close to the line. I believed that Faletau would miss out due to his recent injury record and the impressive form of Ross Moriarty that denied him a permanent spot in the Wales team, but Gatland has obviously seen enough in his domestic form for Bath and knows that he will be a very capable squad player.

At flank, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, CJ Stander, Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien and Ross Moriarty have all been selected. I am slightly surprised by O’Mahony and Moriarty and think it unlikely they will play in the test team, but O’Mahony proved against England that he is a warrior who is unrelenting in the face the opposition and Moriarty was arguably the in-form British Number Eight during the tournament. The Second Row is where many of the ruptions in the media have occurred. Joe Launchbury, as pointed out by Wasps’ Twitter account, gained two Man-of-the-Match awards during the Six Nations and was on the list for player of the tournament. He is hugely unfortunate, but the position is such an area of strength for England at the present that three of the five selected wear the Red Rose. Launchbury has to be first reserve in the case of injury or suspension. I am also slightly surprised to see Iain Henderson selected in the place of Jonny Gray, whose domestic form I felt would have been enough to grant him a place on the plane.

In the front-row are a few encouraging surprises. Samson Lee has been left out following an ineffectual Six Nations and the number of Englishmen reflects Gatland’s desire for a competitive scrummaging platform. Kyle Sinckler and Ken Owens are the major surprises. Even though Owens won plaudits for his Six Nations performances, he was part of a losing team and could easily have been overlooked in favour of Dylan Hartley; whilst it seems that Sean Cronin has been overlooked altogether. In his place though is Jamie George, who offers real forward dynamism and is an outside shout for the test team.

Ultimately, I believe Gatland and his coaching staff have made more than they have missed. They weren’t blessed for choices at tighthead and on the wing and many will point to Launchbury’s omission, but the purpose of the tour is to win, not for national parity in player selection. Gatland was quite right to choose on merit irrespective of nationality, and it is heartening to see that his rugby bosses have supported him rather than imposing restrictions in the name of ‘balance’. Can Scotland feel themselves hard done by? Yes. But let’s not kid ourselves, even though Scotland had an impressive Six Nations, they were obliterated by England in London and their strengths lay in their team work and Huw Jones (who’s injured and should have been on the tour). As for Hamish Watson, Grieg Laidlaw and the Grays, they did not impress enough against established quality in the form of Ben Youngs, Taulupe Faletau and Alun Wyn Jones who pipped them to positions in the squad.

Is this the strongest Lions squad in a generation? Probably not, I still believe the 2005 squad was stronger, but suffered for its bloated numbers and the age of many of its stars. The 2009 tour was an opportunity missed, but was undermined by the large number of injuries and withdrawals of key players (such as Brian O’Driscoll, Halfpenny and Adam Jones). The 2013 squad was a good mix of experience and youth, and benefitted for the relative weakness of the Australian team, but also featured a core of in-form players such as North, Halfpenny and Alex Corbisiero.

Lions Watch Post-Six Nations Squad Predictions

With the Six Nations having concluded this weekend and Warren Gatland that much closer to choosing his squad for this summer’s Lions Tour to New Zealand, it is worth looking at the changed landscape he faces following the recent international window. Before the tournament began I prepared a list of players I believed were likely to be involved in this summer’s tour, but with injuries and form having fluctuated over the last seven weeks, that list has changed. As with the original article, I have chosen to increase the squad depth from the 2013 Lions squad by one to thirty-eight, adding a third fly-half.

Full Backs: Stuart Hogg, Leigh Halfpenny, Rob Kearney (Before the tournament: Rob Kearney, Liam Williams, Stuart Hogg)

Not much change in the Full-Back position following the completion of the Six Nations. I do however believe that Stuart Hogg is now the leading candidate for the test team due to his fantastic counter-attacking ability which saw him score three tries and the same number of assists during the tournament. Scotland also visibly faded without him when they lost him to injury early during the Calcutta Cup. As for the others, Leigh Halfpenny has played his way into the squad because his strong goal kicking, albeit not an area in which the Lions are lacking, but also due to his dependency under the high ball and his superior counter-attacking ability to England’s Mike Brown. The other specialist fifteen in the squad should be Ireland’s Rob Kearney, who like Halfpenny has failed to hit the heights of three or four years ago, but is still incredibly capable as a squad player and knows the Lions set-up having been in the squad in 2009 and 2013. The sole change from my original prediction is that Liam Williams is being classed as a winger rather than a full-back, as several others failed to push their claim for a place out wide.

Wingers: George North, Elliot Daly, Liam Williams, Anthony Watson (Before the tournament: Tommy Seymour, Jack Nowell, George North, Simon Zebo)

Although the 2017 Six Nations has been heralded as one of the best tournament’s in recent years due to its competitive matches and high try-per-game rate, one area where Warren Gatland is likely to be undecided is on the wing, where very few stand-outs lie. This is down to a combination of factors, the emphasis on using all fifteen men in attack has taken the emphasis away from wingers to score tries and England, the tournament winners, persisted in changing their wingers almost on a game-by-game basis. Still, Gatland does have options open to him, the most promising of which being experienced Lions campaigner George North and England’s Elliot Daly. Although criticised for his performance versus Scotland in Week Three, North proved himself in the final two games of the tournament, scoring two tries against Ireland and being a menace in defence. In Daly’s case, Eddie Jones sprung another successful tactical innovation by moving him from centre and the try he scored against Wales in Week Two was deemed by many to be the try of the tournament, both for his finishing, and Owen Farrell’s pinpoint pass. Liam Williams also proved himself a dedicated campaigner during the tournament, scoring three tries (against Italy, England and Scotland respectively) and crucially proving that he can tackle effectively, something that has let many other candidates down. The final wing spot is perhaps the most open spot in the entire touring party, with Tim Visser, Jack Nowell, Simon Zebo and Tommy Seymour among the candidates, but I’m going for Anthony Watson who is a lethal runner and works very well alongside Bath team-mate Jonathan Joseph. Keith Earls, despite his side-stepping ability did not convince in defence and it would be a surprise if he made the plane.

Centres: Jonathan Joseph, Scott Williams, Jared Payne, Robbie Henshaw (Before the tournament: Scott Williams, Robbie Henshaw, Elliot Daly, Jared Payne)

Another interesting position for Warren Gatland to nail down. For his heroics versus Italy, Jonathan Joseph deserves his spot on the tour, even though he will be forced to work a lot harder to unlock the New Zealand defence than that of the Azzurri. The next selection in the team should go to Huw Jones, but having torn his hamstring, he will not be fit for the tour due to the five-month recovery period. In his place comes Scott Williams who showed a couple of nice touches during the tournament (particularly against Ireland) but needs to rediscover the form that saw him overtake Jamie Roberts in the Wales reckoning. With the other Welsh centres failing to inspire (who can forget Jonathan Davies’ kick that handed the game to England in Week Two), Gatland would do well to look to Ireland for his other centre options. Although he only played in one game during the tournament, Jared Payne proved his class versus England with the second-highest number of carries and the highest number of metres gained during the game. As a native Kiwi and having played alongside or against many of those likely to feature in the All Black test side, his knowledge off the field could also prove vital. The final spot in the centre position should go to Robbie Henshaw although he failed to score any tries during the tournament. Despite that, and the lapse against Wales that took the game decisively away from Ireland, Henshaw offers decent attacking and defensive traits, although it would be a surprise if he made the test team.

Fly-Half: Owen Farrell, Jonny Sexton, Dan Biggar (Before the tournament: no change)

Provided there didn’t suffer terrible injuries, or a truly spectacular loss of form it was always odds-on that Owen Farrell and Jonny Sexton were going to book their tickets for New Zealand during the Six Nations campaign. As it happened, neither disappointed, Farrell finishing the tournament as the second highest points scorer (behind Camille Lopez) and with his perfect assist for Daly against Wales under his belt, whereas Sexton masterminded England’s downfall in Dublin and proved himself physically capable under a bombardment of opposition tacklers. In a squad blessed with goal-kickers across the backs, Gatland isn’t so reliant on his fly-half for points, although both are highly competent in that regard. For the final position, it is a toss-up between Scotland’s Finn Russell and Wales’ Dan Biggar. Russell has shown signs of real quality in leading Scotland to victories over Ireland and Wales, but is inconsistent and tends to fade into the background when the chips are down. This opens the spot up for Biggar, whom Gatland knows well and trusts. He also produced a magisterial performance against England in Week Two and was undeservedly on the losing side. Still, he needs to cut out the amateur dramatics that have recently entered his game and focus on his contribution, although it is doubtful that he will make the test team at present.

Scrum-Half: Conor Murray, Rhys Webb, Danny Care (Before the tournament: Conor Murray, Ben Youngs, Rhys Webb)

There is not much doubt about it, Conor Murray is the form scrum-half in the Northern Hemisphere and has been for a considerable number of years. His game management is absolutely on the money and his unflappable demeanour, coupled with his strong partnership with Jonny Sexton makes him odds on for the test team. Behind him, Rhys Webb showed a number of nice touches during the tournament, but will need to be more clinical at key times. Having said that, his distribution is solid and his speed at getting to the breakdown is a real asset, although he will be targeted due to his relatively small stature. The final spot in the touring side at this position is between the England duo Ben Youngs and Danny Care. Youngs had a brilliant first year under Jones but faded during the tournament, failing to offer the killer interventions to turn narrow victories against France and Wales into routs. Instead, Care deserves an unlikely call up on account of his quick service and his eye for the try line.

Number Eight: Billy Vunipola, Jamie Heaslip (Before the tournament: no change)

If Ross Moriarty hadn’t cemented his place in the Wales line-up it could all be so very different. But it isn’t. Moriarty had a barnstorming tournament for a Welsh team who couldn’t close games out in the final twenty (or forty, bearing in mind what happened in Paris). His relative inexperience counts against him though, and in being selected he has likely denied a place to Talupe Faletau, who is started the tournament recovering from an injury. In his place, Jamie Heaslip played well all tournament as part of Ireland’s stand-out backrow and although he may lack that extra yard of pace that defined his early career, he is dogged in defence and has toured twice before. This will likely be his last. The same does not apply to England’s Billy Vunipola, who also missed the start of the tournament to injury, but at his best is a one-man wrecking ball as Australia discovered last summer. Back to his best, Vunipola will be one of Gatland’s main attacking threats.

Flanker: Justin Tipuric, CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien, Sam Warburton, Maro Itoje (Before the tournament: Justin Tipuric, CJ Stander, John Hardie, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier)

An area of real strength for Warren Gatland with many back-rowers having enhanced their prospects of getting on the plane to New Zealand, in contrast to some of their contemporaries behind the scrum. Justin Tipuric has mastered the art of the all-round flanker, an ever-present at the breakdown and enthusiastic with ball in hand and in the defensive line. He’s a real contender for the test team. CJ Stander is another who had an extremely impressive Six Nations, scoring three tries as Man of the Match against Italy in Week Two and forming a bulwark against opposition attacks with Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien. He also offers the option of another Number Eight, which would be useful considering the fixture congestion during the tour. Sam Warburton’s decision to give up the captaincy to focus on his game has also paid ample dividends, with many commentators naming him in their starting test team and others tipping him for the captaincy. I’m not convinced that putting that amount of pressure upon him will bring out the best of his game, but he does know Gatland extremely well and has justified his place on the field. Sean O’Brien also proved his fitness and enduring quality during the tournament, offering hard carrying and aggressive tackling. Like Stander, he offers a heavyweight option to line-up opposite bruisers such as Jerome Kaino and Ardie Savea, while Tipuric and Warburton are more mobile, but less inclined to punch holes in opposition defences. Although Peter O’Mahony put in a strong showing in the final game of the tournament versus England, I believe the final spot on the flank should go to Maro Itoje. Whether Gatland will choose to use him as a second-row or a flanker is yet to be seen, but he embodies the modern mobile loose-forward who is capable with ball in hand and without. His speed will also be crucial in combatting New Zealand’s counter-attacking threats.

Lock: Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, A. W. Jones, Jonny Gray, George Kruis (injury dependant) (Before the tournament: Maro Itoje, George Kruis, Alun Wyn Jones, Richie Gray, Jonny Gray)

Probably the strongest position from which Gatland has to choose from. England have four locks of established quality who have flourished under Eddie Jones and will be at the forefront of Gatland’s thinking. Of those, Itoje has been selected in the back-row leaving Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes and George Kruis (injury permitting) as three of Gatland’s five potential picks in this position. Before the tournament, I wasn’t convinced that Jones’s experiment by moving Itoje to the flank would work, but the resulting success allowed Jones to utilise Launchbury and Lawes as a hugely successful partnership throughout the tournament, with the former having been nominated for player of the championship. Kruis didn’t play any part in the tournament due to injury, but is a first-rate line-out forward and works brilliantly alongside Itoje. Another potential Lions captain is Alun Wyn Jones who has gained a good press despite his team’s disappointing final placing. I think handing him the captaincy would be a mistake based on his decision making, rather than his playing ability, but his relationship with Gatland and phenomenal work-ethic count in his favour. The final spot is a close contest between Ireland’s Iain Henderson and Scotland’s Gray brothers. Although Henderson is a real talent, he didn’t get a huge amount of game time during the tournament and may be considered a lightweight due to his sleight frame compared to Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock. Of the Scots brothers, Jonny Gray edges selection on the back of his superior mobility and for his domestic performances for Glasgow.

Prop: Dan Cole, Tadhg Furlong, Samson Lee, Mako Vunipola, Jack McGrath, Joe Marler (Before the tournament: Dan Cole, Samson Lee, W. P. Nel, Mako Vunipola, Jack McGrath, Cian Healy)

The least heralded position on the pitch and potentially one of the most important. Any coach will tell you that a successful game plan owes itself to at least parity at scrum-time, and preferably superiority. Without a strong scrum, the Lions will be sunk against a huge New Zealand scrum comprising two former World Players of the Year (including the only second-row to have won the award). To achieve this, Gatland will likely look for a balance of experience and youthful athleticism with England’s Dan Cole and Mako Vunipola comprising the former. Although lacking an all-round game, Cole is stubbornly consistent at tighthead and has been on campaign before. The same can be said for Vunipola, who gained three test caps at the age of twenty-two and has only improved since then, proving himself to be among the world’s most mobile props. The starting name at tighthead for many commentators, Ireland’s Tadhg Furlong combines hard carrying and a strong scrummaging profile. He has also beaten the All Blacks before, not something to be overlooked. Jack McGrath also has experience of repelling the Kiwi hoards although his carrying during the tournament may not have compared to previous standards. The two final spots go to England’s Joe Marler and Wales’ Samson Lee. Marler was barely in the picture before the tournament because of Vunipola’s stranglehold on England’s first jersey, but he proved himself a rock in England’s competitive scrum and seems to have put his earlier disciplinary problems behind him. Lee benefits from the relative inexperience of Scotland’s Zander Fagerson and his relationship with Gatland, but will need to improve drastically to be considered for a test spot.

Hooker: Rory Best, Dylan Hartley, Jamie George (Before the tournament: Dylan Hartley, Sean Cronin, Rory Best)

Amongst the most difficult decisions for Gatland. I have never been convinced by the argument of playing the captain regardless of form. Captain’s need to be the most committed on the field as well as effective in the dressing room. Probably the best candidate for the captaincy is Ireland’s Rory Best, who has his issues at the line-out, but captained Ireland to victory against the All Blacks in the Autumn and leads from the front. He has played for the Lions before and is well respected across the four nations. Behind him I would select Jamie George. Although a substitute for most of the Six Nations, George is a truly dynamic hooker in the loose and therefore is closest to the human dynamo that is Dane Coles. Ken Owens played well during the Six Nations, but I believe Gatland will ultimately opt for Dylan Hartley, who was never at his best during the tournament, but whose contribution as a captain cannot be doubted. If his form improves in a Northampton jersey in the next few months, he could be this year’s Lions captain.

So, out of a squad of thirty-eight, we have fifteen Englishmen, eleven Irishmen, ten Welshmen and two Scots. This may seem unduly harsh for the Scots who had their best Six Nations in a generation, but injuries to W. P. Nel, Huw Jones and John Hardie have counted against them and Finn Russell will be the next alternate if any of the selected three fly-halves gets injured. For England, a successful Six Nations and the return of several players from injury sees them with the leading contingent, many of whom will make the test squad. The Welsh have a healthy ten that flies in the face of their disappointing Six Nations campaign. It should however be born in mind that they came very close to beating France and England. For Ireland, the smart money is on Rory Best captaining the team. They will also provide a sizeable number of the starters for the test team with Furlong and Murray already pencilled in. Of course, there will be changes between now and the naming of the squad on the 19^th April, but it does seem that the Lions will have a strong team to take to New Zealand to try and defend 2013’s success.

Lions Watch Round 4: What did we learn from the penultimate weekend?

Irish lineout fails again

This is an area I commented on in a previous post, but as it doesn’t seem to have been resolved by Joe Schmidt and his staff, and had a major impact upon Friday night’s game against Wales, it’s worth another look. There is no question that Ireland have a strong pack of forwards; I still believe that O’Brien, Heaslip and Stander have a very good chance of making Gatland’s squad. But neither of those three are specialist line-out forwards in the way that Joe Launchbury or Maro Itoje are and they can do other things too. What Ireland suffers from is a lack of variety at the line-out with Rory Best being too easy to read and losing confidence once a couple have gone astray. In total, Ireland lost three of thirteen lineouts during the game compared to Wales’ 100% success rate. It is only since Paul O’Connell retired and England came to prominence with world-class second row options that it has become clear how crucial the second-row position is to a team as a whole. Ireland currently lack world-class operators in that area and will be vulnerable until it is rectified.

Scots defensive frailties 

For a team who have performed to a far higher standard in this Six Nations than in any other in living memory, Scotland should launch in inquest into how they were demolished quite so comprehensively at Twickenham on Saturday. Having beaten Ireland and Wales in this championship, Scotland have proved they can defend on their day, Alex Dunbar having gained many plaudits along with Hamish Watson, John Barclay and the Gray brothers. But yesterday, it all fell apart in spectacular style. Yes, Scotland were extremely unfortunate with injuries, losing Stuart Hogg and Mark Bennett early on, but all players are taught how to tackle, regardless of whether they are playing in their correct position or not. However, it wasn’t merely, or even largely, tackle technique that led to Scotland’s downfall, but their lack of defensive organisation. There simply appeared to be no leaders in the Scottish defensive line with Dunbar and Russell (twice) failing with try-saving tackles. It didn’t help that Scotland were unable to slow England’s ball to anything less than a stampede but that they didn’t adjust in game suggests that fundamental flaws exist within their defensive system.

England should have the largest contingent

Warren Gatland is the Wales coach, and it would not be a surprise to see a healthy Welsh contingent in the Lions squad when it is announced, on the back of his intimate knowledge of those players. However, Welsh performances, like those of Ireland and Scotland have been hit and miss in this tournament and in previous international windows. During this time, England have proved themselves to be the best Northern Hemisphere team by some distance, having an unbeaten record stretching back to 2015 and having beaten all Six Nations teams, save Ireland, at least twice since then. Players for the tour should not be selected on nationality, but it is clear for all the plaudits attached to the Scottish attack, the Irish pack and the Welsh half-backs that England should provide the bulk of those making the long journey to the other side of the world. Many of those players who were on the edge of selection before the tournament began, but were likely to be overlooked – Courtney Lawes, Joe Launchbury, Jonathan Joseph, Joe Marler, George Ford et al. have all proved themselves worthy.

Wingers who can’t defend

This is a big issue for Gatland, particularly considering that New Zealand have world class wingers in Nehe Milner-Skudder, Israel Dagg and Julian Savea, with the latter particularly lethal due to his uncompromising physique and speed. For wingers who cannot defend, New Zealand is the last place on earth to be playing, as the Kiwis treat attacking dynamism as a core principal within their playing philosophy. Ireland’s wing pairing of Simon Zebo and Keith Earls thus did their chances of going on tour no good whatsoever in allowing George North to claim a brace on Friday evening, with the latter looking particularly suspect with the Welsh in possession. For all that was made of his performance two weekends previously, North redeemed himself on this occasion showing both attacking and defensive intent and effectively securing his place on the plane. Another likely to be disappointed with his defensive effort was England’s Jack Nowell who failed with try-saving tackles for both of Huw Jones’ tries.

Lions Watch: What did we learn from the second weekend?

The Final 20

Both Scotland and Wales are guilty of falling off the pace towards the end of their matches this week. For Vern Cotter’s men, the game was finely balanced at 16 all, they had just scored a (slightly dubious) try and should’ve had the momentum going into the final quarter. But instead, the French pack turned the screw, offering no further openings for Scotland to exploit and for all of last week’s enthusiasm as to how five teams were now in the running for the tournament, the thistle wilted once again. Even more crushing was Wales’ loss at home to England. For an England team firing on half its cylinders and without a fit captain, the holders were there for the taking, but as against France, England found a way to win, the Welsh exhausted by an effort disproportionate to their points scored. Warren Gatland knows all too well that New Zealand tend to pull away in the second half, producing a burst of momentum that moves the game from ‘in the reckoning’ to ‘confined to history’. England’s knack lies in the ability to dominate the final quarter, having scored 122 points and conceded only 46 in that time period whilst being coached by Eddie Jones. It will be worth the while of Vern Cotter and Rob Howley to impress on their troops the importance of being ahead at the 80, not at the 60.

Composure

Attacking and defensively, to stand a chance against the All Blacks, the Lions need to be able to out-think their opponents as well as dominate them physically. A large part of this is staying cool whilst under the screw, and Wales’ Jonathan Davies made the crucial error in gifting England open field ball in the final 5 minutes against tiring Welsh defenders. To say that this was what lost Wales the match is an overstatement, but it is its manifestation. Under sustained pressure, the ball should have been fed to either Dan Biggar or Leigh Halfpenny to smash the ball into the stand, denying England any chance of a counter-attack and allowing the forwards to get their breath back. Despite the plaudits attached to the Welsh performance after the game, this is not something that Davies will look back on with any fondness. For the Scots, Finn Russell may want to slow down his kicking routine, for Jaco Peyper was decidedly uninterested in French appeals for a push by Tommy Seymour. Those two points dropped, so went the psychological advantage.

Attacking Mentality

It’s an old cliché, but attack is the best form of defence, particularly in rugby where a wildly differing tackle count has a massive negative effect on the team under the cosh. Eventually the dam will burst, as Wales discovered, and all the energy expended keeping the opposition out for 20 phases earlier in the match will have been for very little. The best example of this mentality was from Ireland this weekend, as they pummelled the Italians into the floor in the most one-sided Six Nations match I’ve seen in years. Conor O’Shea has talked about opposition teams ‘going for the jugular’ against the Azzurri, seeing not a wall but a thin blue line. This in itself goes a long way towards winning. With the Irish pumped up following last week’s disappointment, there was only going to be one conclusion, but there was never a point at which Ireland reigned themselves and settled for what they had, they were always looking for more.

Personnel

The Scots were still struggling against the French at scrum-time, although Jaco Peyper did rule in their favour on a couple of occasions when he could have easily gone the other way. Gatland will be concerned that his scrummaging platform will fall apart against a dynamic Kiwi front-five, and the Gray brothers will need to show more in this area to ensure they board the plane in the summer. On a more hopeful note, even in defeat, the Welsh front-row showed up well against the English, with Rob Evans and Tomas Francis both winning plaudits for their scrummaging and enthusiasm. In Rome, CJ Stander must have confirmed his place on the tour. Yes, it was against Italy and yes they were there for the taking, but Stander was relentless and totally deserved his man-of-the-match award. Ross Moriarty also broadened his prospects, delivering some killer defensive interventions in Cardiff, until he was surprisingly replaced by Toby Faletau. This week’s big winner though has to be Dan Biggar, who was masterful across the park in a game that he looked unlikely to take part in. His performance has made Finn Russell’s spot on the tour appear even more tenuous, particularly if Gatland decides to stick with only two fly-halves as he did in 2013.

Lions Watch: What did we learn from the weekend?

Not to entrust the line-out to Ireland

With the stats pointing to Ireland having won 12 out of their 14 line-outs, those who didn’t watch the game would be forgiven for thinking that the men in green had relative dominance on their own throw and that Rory Best throwing was integral to Ireland’s improved second-half performance. Wrong. Best has been widely applauded for his recent captaincy of Ireland, particularly in the historic win over the All Blacks last year, but his throwing ability has often been called into question in contrast to his strong scrummaging and work in the loose. He is too easy to read at times whilst throwing in, and this points to a wider lethargy regarding Ireland’s work at the line-out, with Alex Dunbar’s try its most damning result. It is understandable that a team at the beginning of the tournament won’t be fully up to match speed, but that not a single Irish forward either read the call or could react quickly enough in its aftermath demonstrates worrying complacency that Warren Gatland could do without. Let us be under no illusions, the All Blacks have two of the world’s best line-out jumpers in Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock and won’t give second chances.

Not to leave the Scots in charge of the Scrum

Despite producing a brilliant performance to overhaul Ireland at Murrayfield on Saturday, Vern Cotter will be concerned about his team’s lack of control at the scrum, particularly in the first half where Scotland’s tries came from expansive open-field moves or innovative solutions at the line-out. Against New Zealand in the summer, not having the platform to play off the back of a scrum will have a devastating impact upon the Lions’ chances of success, because the All Blacks will not succumb so easily to attacking pressure with ball in hand, and having used the Alex Dunbar tactic to effect in years past, will not be so lax from set plays. Concerns also exist over the personnel employed by Scotland for this purpose; the Gray brothers, all aggression in the tackle and endeavour looked decidedly second-best when packing down whilst the loss of W.P. Nel to injury was sorely felt. Against France next week, the Scotland scrum will once again be tested, and they will not get the luxury of easy tries again if they are overcome by the French vanguard.

The importance of substitutions

A point most clearly demonstrated by Eddie Jones with England who used his substitutes to great effect as England wrested victory from France’s grasp at Twickenham on Saturday. Losing 12-16 into the final quarter of the match, Jones altered the balance of his team by replacing six players in a 15 minute spell, with Danny Care, Jack Nowell and Ben Teo’o looking particularly impressive. Indeed, all three of these players had a role in Teo’o’s match winning try with Nowell making the initial break and Care marshalling England’s misfiring backs. It was not simply who Jones brought on, but also the time at which he did so that made a difference. With Captain Dylan Hartley off the pace, Jones had no compunction in replacing him with Jamie George on 54 minutes, a move that secured England’s line-out. As Haskell, Mullan et al. were brought on between the 60^th and 70^th minute mark, the French defense, intrepid, but bound by large bodies, began to tire and it was at that stage that England’s experience began to tell. Gatland would do well to take note of a team who played within themselves, but never lost their composure and achieved victory in the ugliest sense possible.

80 Minute performances

None of the games this weekend heralded a complete 80-minute performance from any of the competing teams, with Scotland, having had a barnstorming opening 40 being particularly guilty in letting a 21-8 lead slip, only to recover to win 27-22. Neither England or Ireland played anywhere near their potential over the full 80 and Wales didn’t have to, Conor O’Shea’s vaunted Italy side succumbing to old habits as the game went on. In England’s favour, Eddie Jones’ team never threw in the towel and we never far enough out of touch to give the French confidence of winning, although a performance like that in red shirts will be savagely punished by Steve Hansen’s men. For Ireland, especially, next week’s game in Rome has to be a statement from Joe Schmidt’s men. Even with the Grand Slam gone, the Emerald Isle will be expectant of a bonus-point victory over the Azzurri. On a personal note, Scotland’s Stuart Hogg and the Welsh back-row came closest to 80 minute performances this week, as illustrated by their inclusion in many media outlet’s teams of the week.

The Six Nations: New faces to keep an eye on

With the Six Nations less than a week away and the respective national coaches having selected their squads for the first time this year, northern Europe is preparing itself for its annual celebration of international Rugby Union. To put this year’s competition in context, England are the holders, both of the Six Nations title and the Grand Slam, after sweeping all comers last year. Wales and Ireland finished second and third respectively, with Scotland having finished a disappointing fourth with only two victories. France had their worst Six Nations since 2013, finishing fifth and perennial underdogs Italy lived up to their billing, finishing bottom of the pile having lost all of their games. Since then, Ireland have undoubtedly improved, beating the world champion All Blacks in the autumn, whilst Scotland, France and Italy have also demonstrated varying improvements. Wales have been largely static since this time last year, having a disappointing autumn in which they barely managed to beat Japan and were crushed 8-32 by Australia. Ahead of this year’s tournament, we look at the new faces that could make an impact.

For England, Eddie Jones has selected three uncapped faces to supplement an already dangerous team, in the form of Nathan Catt, Mike Williams and Alex Lozowski. Jones has tweaked his resources in response to injury problems and will look to give Lozowski game time especially, even though Owen Farrell and George Ford currently occupy his chosen positions. Catt has been a regular workhorse for Bath in recent years and can be thought of as David Barnes with added mobility. Jones’ final addition is Leicester’s second-row cum flanker Mike Williams whose season has been blighted with a succession of injuries, but whose worth lies in hard carrying and his ability to fill different positions if required. Even though it is unlikely any of these three will start against France on the opening weekend, it is assured with Eddie Jones at the helm that they will have been brought into a team with a purpose in mind. Without a defeat in the last fourteen months, Twickenham will be expectant of back-to-back English Six Nations triumphs for the first time since 2000-01.

France, England’s opponents on the first weekend, have also resisted making wholesale changes following an autumn in which they lost to New Zealand, beat Samoa and fought Australia to a loss. Guy Noves has opted for four new faces in his squad of thirty-two, with Louis Picamoles the only non-France based member. The four in question are full-back Geoffrey Palis, flanker Fabien Sanconnie, lock Arthur Iturria and prop Mohamed Boughanmi. Palis has been part of the French set-up before having been selected for (but didn’t play in) the 2014 Six Nations. Iturria is part of table-topping Clermont’s title push this season and as one of only four locks selected is likely to get playing time even as the least experienced player selected at second-row. Mohamed Boughanmi plays for this year’s surprise package in the Top 14, La Rochelle, who currently sit second in the table having only lost four times this season. Weighing in at nearly 23 stone, he will complement the more mobile Eddy Ben Arous and Rabah Slimani, but will likely be called in if France succeed in forcing their opponents into an arm wrestle. Tall and rangy, Brive’s Fabien Sanconnie is the surprise inclusion in Noves’ squad. Considering the relative scarcity of top-level back row options available to Noves in the post-Dusautoir era though, Sanconnie has a good chance of making the match-day twenty-three in a squad that is crying out for inspiration.

Coming off an impressive autumn, Ireland appear to be England’s biggest challengers and will be relishing the opportunity with England coming to Dublin on the tournament’s final weekend. Keeping with the theme of continuity, Joe Schmidt has selected only three new names, keeping faith with an already well balanced squad. In the backs, Schmidt has added wingers Andrew Conway and Rory Scannell, whilst hooker Niall Scannell is the sole new-cap in the forwards. All three are Munstermen. With the injury to Sean Cronin, Niall Scannell will provide competition for James Tracy for the number sixteen jersey behind captain Rory Best and could easily leapfrog the Leinsterman into the twenty-three for the Scotland game. Less likely to see action are the two new wingers who face competition from established faces such as Keith Earls (who seems to have settled on wing as his favoured position), Andrew Trimble, Simon Zebo and Tommy Bowe. Both have had impressive seasons with Munster though, and with Schmidt a coach predisposed to new ideas and emerging talent, it would be a surprise if one of them didn’t manage to secure a run-out at some point during the tournament.

A worryingly inexperienced squad for Italy this year, although with only one uncapped player in the thirty-two. Conor O’Shea will not have under-estimated the challenge however, and after a scintillating victory over South Africa in the autumn, will be looking for real signs of the progress Italy perennially lack. Zebre’s Federico Ruzza is the sole new name at second-row, supporting Josh Furno, Marco Fuser, George Biagi and Dries van Schalkwyk. In truth, it would be hugely encouraging if Italy could win just two games in this year’s championships with games at home against Wales and France likely to be pencilled in for that purpose. The back-row duo of Sergio Parisse and Glasgow’s Simone Favaro will be key if this is to occur because otherwise the team appears largely bereft of elite talent, particularly with the loss of Leonardo Sarto to injury.

In his final Six Nations as Scotland coach, Vern Cotter has selected two uncapped names in an increasingly dangerous Scotland side. Following the selections of Simon Berghan and Cornell du Preez, do not expect a revolution in tactics from the Kiwi head coach, although Berghan has a better chance at gaining game time now that W.P. Nel has sustained yet another injury. Du Preez, also of Edinburgh has more experience of high-pressure games having previously played in Super Rugby for the Kings, but is behind John Barclay, John Hardie, Rob Harley and Hamish Watson in the back-row pecking order and will almost certainly spend more time in the stands than on the pitch. On a pleasing note for the Scots, this continuity will ensure that talents like Huw Jones and Tommy Seymour should be given the game-time to fulfil their potential, and Warren Gatland will no doubt be watching.

Rob Howley’s Wales team are in flux once again following a disappointing Autumn, and although a knee-jerk action has not occurred, Howley had opted for seven uncapped players in his thirty-six man squad. Of those, the most promising is free-scoring Wasps’ flanker Thomas Young, who has had a storming season in Coventry, winning repeated man-of-the-match awards and gaining both journalistic and popular acclaim for his hard work-rate and speed in attack. Eddie Jones may well regret not convincing the twenty-four year old to defect to the Red Roses. Alongside him in the forward pack are the Ospreys duo of Rory Thornton and Olly Cracknell. Although talented, they are unlikely to get much game time with likes of Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton and Young standing in their way. Wales’ regular search for a reliable third-choice Scrum Half has landed upon the Scarlets’ Aled Davies, who barring an injury to either Rhys Webb or Gareth Davies will have to make do with running out during the warm-up, but is definitely one for the future having marshalled the Scarlets’ impressively during their draw against Saracens in the European Champions Cup. Leicester’s Owen Williams has also been selected and will fight it out with Sam Davies for a spot on the bench behind Dan Biggar, but his being part of a reeling Leicester Tigers’ team will not help his chances. Howley’s final original selections come in the form of wingers Steff Evans and Ashton Hewitt. Evans performed very impressively in the Scarlets’ Champions Cup match against Saracens and would be unfortunate to miss out on the twenty-three considering the competition. Hewitt on the other hand hasn’t had the opportunity to play in the Champions Cup this season and may not be ready for Wales’ tough schedule with three games away from home.

Altogether, all six nations have opted for continuity over change in their squad selections, perhaps a surprise considering we’re less than two years through the next World Cup cycle and with players such as Parisse and Bowe in the twilight of their careers. Of those selected, I believe that Wales’ Thomas Young will have the greatest rookie impact from across all six sides, but the Six Nations is by nature unpredictable, and considering the new law changes around the tackle area, it may only take one misjudged hit to fundamentally alter a player’s impact upon the tournament, leaving the door ajar for someone else to seize the initiative.